Canada votes: What’s at stake? (2025)

OTTAWA, Ontario — Canada’s Monday polls are broadly seen as the most important election in a generation.

One of the world’s most prosperous nations and the United States’ closest ally and trading partner, Canada has found itself in recent months unexpectedly in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump, targeted with tariffs and annexation threats.

But the country has also seen many of its coveted national accomplishments in regard to the economy and social issues slip, including higher costs of living, high unemployment, rising housing costs, and a surge in homelessness and substance abuse. Many of these problems, not just in Canada but in other advanced economies, were exacerbated by the pandemic.

Many Canadians blame a decade of Liberal Party rule under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the country’s woes.

The Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, has spent the past three years at the helm of his party trying to hammer home the point that he is the change the nation needs to restore Canada to its rightful place as a strong and prosperous country that can hold its own against anyone — even the United States.

But Liberal supporters believe that the country would be in worse shape without the party’s stewardship and, while admitting mistakes under Trudeau, they insist that the new leader, Mark Carney, is a uniquely competent captain to right the ship during what’s turned out to be a major storm.

Different visions

The two top candidates in the election seem to agree on what Canada’s major problems are: a crisis of affordability; Trump’s actions and menacing words; the economy; and crime.

But they offer two competing visions of how to tackle those issues, placing their individual personalities at the heart of their pitches to the Canadian public.

Carney, 60, has had a successful global career in the public and private sectors, as a central banker in Canada and Britain, as well as an executive at major companies. He has presented himself as a crisis expert, who brings to Canada the experience of a lifetime of tackling economic turmoil, negotiating deals and reading the global environment in times of upheaval.

His critics frame him as an out-of-touch member of the global elite, who simply offers a continuation of Trudeau’s failed policies.

Poilievre, 45, a career politician, supports many staple conservative policies, such as cutting back the role of the state, limiting taxes, supporting Canada’s oil-and-gas industries and being tough on crime.

But he also promotes ideas aligned with Trump’s brand of conservatism: denouncing “radical woke ideology,” promoting steep cuts to Canada’s foreign aid and defunding the national broadcaster. His ideology and his often abrasive tone, polls show, have driven some centrist Canadians who were flirting with voting for him to opt for Carney instead.

Affordability

Polls show that the top concern for voters in this election remains the question of affordability. Canadians have grown less and less able to afford a home, research by the Bank of Canada shows. Rents and home prices have climbed in urban centers, where the vast majority of Canadians live, pushing people out to suburbs and beyond, and forcing first-time buyers to postpone their plans.

How to reverse this trend is a major challenge for Canada’s next government. Both top candidates for prime minister have proposed new ways to build more homes, in a bid to drive prices down. Poilievre has focused on deregulating the permitting of new buildings, while Carney has talked about ways to finance new construction.

Tariffs and Trump

Trump’s decision to hit some of Canada’s key exports to the United States with tariffs, as he continues to advance a reconfiguration of global trade, has left Canadians reeling.

The country has also been stunned and angered by his repeated claims that he wants to make Canada the 51st state.

The bellicose posture from a country considered Canada’s closest friend has unleashed a desire to stand up to the United States and a rallying around the flag that has translated into a defiant patriotism.

The candidates in Monday’s election have recognized the potency of this moment for Canadians, and the heavy impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy: About 80% of Canada’s exports are sent to the United States.

Carney and Poilievre have proposed taking essentially similar approaches toward the United States.

Carney, who has been serving as prime minister since early March, has insisted on targeted retaliatory measures and highlighted that those can take Canada only so far before the two countries start negotiating a broader agreement on their economic relationship. Poilievre has largely agreed.

Both men have pledged to bolster Canada’s military, in an effort to lessen its dependence on the United States for security.

But while Carney has made Trump’s threats the centerpiece of his campaign, Poilievre has been less vocal in taking on Trump directly.

Society

A number of social policies have also become part of the campaign, including fighting crime, tightening Canada’s immigration system, and tackling the addiction and mental health crises playing out on the streets of many Canadian cities.

Poilievre has jumped on the question of crime to propose much tougher sentences for repeat offenders. And he has said he wants authorities to intervene to treat people’s addiction and mental health problems even if the treatment is involuntary.

Carney has acknowledged a tougher stance is needed but has stopped short of advocating for harsher state interventions.

But both men agree that Canada’s immigration system has granted access to too many foreign workers in recent years and should be more restrictive.

Pipeline dreams

How to utilize Canada’s vast natural resources is another issue on the election agenda. Under Trudeau, the Liberal Party took a stricter stance on new exploration for energy and mineral deposits and the extraction of oil and gas, which were seen by many in the energy industry as overly focused on combating climate change and anti-energy.

Carney, despite his background as one of the world’s most prominent green investment evangelists, has struck a relatively moderate tone on the topic, promising to unleash some of Canada’s energy and mineral potential to boost its economy.

Poilievre has been an aggressive proponent of oil and gas, pledging to remove all obstacles to building more pipelines.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright 2025

This story was originally published April 27, 2025 at 9:25 PM.